China’s import and export performance in the first two months of this year was far beyond market expectations, especially since 1995, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on March 7. In addition, China’s trade with major trading partners has increased significantly, indicating that China’s integration with the world economy has deepened further. Reuters reported that China successfully controlled the epidemic, and orders for anti epidemic materials abroad continued. The implementation of home isolation measures in many countries led to the outbreak of demand for domestic and electronic consumer goods, which led to the opening of China’s foreign trade in 2021. However, the General Administration of customs also pointed out that the world economic situation is complex and severe, and China’s foreign trade has a long way to go.
The fastest growth rate of exports since 1995
According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the total value of China’s goods trade import and export in the first two months of this year is 5.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 32.2% over the same period last year. Among them, export was 3.06 trillion yuan, up 50.1%; import was 2.38 trillion yuan, up 14.5%. The value is denominated in US dollars, and the total import and export value of China has increased by 41.2% in the previous two months. Among them, export increased by 60.6%, import increased by 22.2%, and export increased by 154% in February. AFP stressed in its report that it was the fastest growth rate in China’s export experience since 1995.
ASEAN, EU, the United States and Japan are the four major trade partners in China from January to February, with trade growth rates of 32.9%, 39.8%, 69.6% and 27.4% in RMB respectively. According to the General Administration of customs, China’s exports to the United States amounted to 525.39 billion yuan, up 75.1 percent in the previous two months, while the trade surplus with the United States was 33.44 billion yuan, an increase of 88.2 percent. In the same period last year, the import and export between China and the United States fell 19.6 per cent.
In general, China’s import and export scale in the first two months of this year is not only far beyond the same period of last year, but also increased by about 20% compared with the same period in 2018 and 2019 before the outbreak. Huojianguo, vice president of the World Trade Organization Research Association of China, told the global times on March 7 that China’s import and export shrank in the first two months of last year due to the impact of the epidemic. Based on the relatively low base, the import and export data of this year should have a good performance, but the data released by the General Administration of customs still far exceeded expectations.
China’s exports surged in the first two months of this year, reflecting strong global demand for manufactured goods, and benefited from a decline in the base due to economic stagnation in the same period last year, Bloomberg analysis said. The General Administration of Customs believes that China’s foreign trade import and export growth in the first two months is obvious, “not weak in off-season”, which continues the rapid rebound since June last year. Among them, the increase in foreign demand caused by the recovery of production and consumption in European and American economies has led to the growth of China’s exports.
Significant increase in import of key raw materials
The domestic economy has been recovering continuously, and PMI of manufacturing industry is on the line of prosperity and withering for 12 months. The enterprise is more optimistic about the future expectations, which promotes the import of integrated circuit, energy resource products such as integrated circuit, iron ore and crude oil. However, the drastic fluctuation of international prices of commodities among different categories also causes a significant change in the volume price of these commodities when China imports them.
According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in the first two months of this year, China imported 82 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 2.8%, the average import price of 942.1 yuan, up 46.7%; the imported crude oil reached 89.568 million tons, an increase of 4.1%, and the average import price was 2470.5 yuan per ton, down 27.5%, resulting in a 24.6% decrease in the total import amount.
Global chip supply tension also affected China. According to the General Administration of customs, China imported 96.4 billion integrated circuits in the first two months of this year, with a total value of 376.16 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 36% and 25.9% in quantity and amount compared with the same period last year.
In terms of export, due to the fact that the global epidemic has not yet erupted in the same period last year, the export of medical instruments and equipment in China in the first two months of this year was 18.29 billion yuan, a significant increase of 63.8% compared with the same period last year. In addition, because China took the lead in effective control of COVID-19, the recovery and production of the mobile phone were good, and the exports of mobile phones, household appliances and automobiles had risen sharply. Among them, the export of mobile phones increased by 50%, and the export of home appliances and automobiles reached 80% and 90% respectively.
Huojianguo analyzed to the global times that China’s economy continued to improve, market confidence restored and enterprise production was positive, so the procurement of key raw materials was greatly increased. In addition, because the epidemic situation abroad is still spreading and the capacity cannot be restored, China continues to play the role of global manufacturing base, providing strong support for the global epidemic recovery.
The external situation is still grim
The General Administration of Customs of China believes that China’s foreign trade has opened its doors in the previous two months, which has opened a good start for the whole year. The survey shows that the export orders of Chinese export enterprises have increased in recent years, showing optimistic expectations on the export situation in the next 2-3 months. Bloomberg believes that China’s booming exports helped to support China’s recovery from the epidemic V-shaped and to make China the only growing country in the world’s major economies in 2020.
On March 5, the government work report stated that China’s economic growth target for 2021 was set at more than 6 per cent. Huojianguo said that China’s exports increased significantly in the previous two months because of the fact that exports were included in GDP, laying a solid foundation for achieving the full year goal.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia is also spreading globally, and the unstable and uncertain factors in the international situation are increasing. The world economic situation is complex and severe. China’s foreign trade is still growing steadily. Huweijun, China’s economic director at Macquarie, a financial institution, predicts that China’s export growth will slow in the next few months of this year as developed countries begin to resume industrial production.
“The factors that affect China’s exports may be that after the epidemic situation is effectively controlled, global capacity is restored and China’s exports may slow down.” Huojianguo analysis said that as the world’s largest manufacturing country for 11 years in a row, China’s complete industrial chain and highly competitive production efficiency will not make China’s exports fluctuate significantly in 2021.
Post time: Mar-23-2021