Under the benchmark scenario that the global epidemic is under control, the world economy recovers slowly, and China’s economy grows steadily, it is estimated that China’s total import and export in 2021 will be about 4.9 trillion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of about 5.7%; of which, the total export will be about 2.7 trillion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of about 6.2%; the total import will be about 2.2 trillion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of about 4.9%; and the trade surplus will be about 5% 76.6 billion US dollars. Under the optimistic scenario, China’s export and import growth in 2021 increased by 3.0% and 3.3% respectively compared with the benchmark scenario; under the pessimistic scenario, China’s export and import growth in 2021 decreased by 2.9% and 3.2% respectively compared with the benchmark scenario.

In 2020, China novel coronavirus pneumonia control measures were effective, and China’s foreign trade was first suppressed, and the growth rate increased year by year. The export volume in 1 to November achieved a positive growth of 2.5%. In 2021, China’s import and export growth is still facing great uncertainty.

On the one hand, the application of vaccines will contribute to the global economic recovery, the index of new export orders is expected to be improved, and the signing of regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) will accelerate the integration of trade between China and its neighboring countries; on the other hand, the tide of trade protection in developed countries is not abating, and the overseas epidemic continues to ferment, which may have a negative impact on China’s trade growth.